Víctor Elvira, Chair of Statistics and Data Science, has been awarded £1 million by Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA) to investigate and forecast climate tipping points — thresholds that, once crossed, will likely lead to cascading and irreversible changes to Earth’s climate.

Major parts of the Earth system are at risk of crossing climate tipping points within the next century, with severe consequences for biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and humanity. Professor Elvira says, “Understanding climate tipping points is crucial for anticipating irreversible changes. This project advances computational methods for detecting and predicting these tipping points, with a strong emphasis on scientific understanding. We also focus on quantifying our uncertainties about the future — not just predicting what can be predicted, but also determining what cannot and why.”