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The 8th Maxwell Institute Finney Lecture will be delivered by Prof. Adrian E. Raftery on 14th October 2024 in partnership with the University of Edinburgh’s Centre for Statistics. Join us in the Yew Lecture Theatre, Nucleus Building, from 1.30-3pm for the lecture on “Very Long-Term Probabilistic Population Projections for Assessing the Social Cost of Carbon” and refreshments. Registration is available here.
Bio
Prof. Raftery is Blumstein-Jordan Professor of Statistics and Sociology, and Adjunct Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. He is also a faculty affiliate of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences and the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology. He works on the development of new statistical methods for the social and environmental sciences. An elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he was identified as the world’s most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI. He has supervised 34 Ph.D, graduates, of whom 21 hold or have held tenure-track university faculty positions, and has 159 academic descendants.
Abstract
Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn depend on very long-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. The traditional methods for population forecasting are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are needed as inputs to the models of the social cost of carbon. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that was developed by our group. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. While total world population is projected to grow for most of the rest of this century, it will likely stabilize in the 22nd century and decline in the 23rd century.
All Maxwell Institute staff are invited to a weekly coffee break between Wednesday afternoon seminars. Join us in the Maxwell area of the Bayes Centre at 3.30pm every week for tea, coffee, and biscuits. Coffee breaks will run from 18th September to 27th November 2024 and 15th January to 26th March 2025.
We look forward to seeing you there!